By Odaka Asumani
Asumani Odaka the Secretary General of National Economic Empowerment Dialogue – NEED.
Any keen observers would have already realized the angle, the media in Uganda are “storytelling” without drama but relatively peaceful rallies organized by some opposition political parties, especially the National Unity Platform and Alliance for National Transformation this week.
The most popularly discussed topic is why the police and other (in)security agencies have largely watched on as these parties go about their political businesses (never mind their activities are permitted by the Constitution and cemented under PPOA).
This, of course, is an effort to whitewash the image of the Uganda police. To the sober mind, however, this same trajectory makes the police and their cohorts look like law breakers who make news only when they abide by the law.
In other words, everyone expects their presence to come with brutalities, arbitrary arrest, illegalities, and even death; then their Enanga to make up some alternative fact; that is the general rule, the contrary, it is an exception.
My fairly good experience in the politics of Ugnada and Musevenocracy (democracy in Museveni’s context) I thought I should help contextualize this by giving possible reasons for the momentary out of the normal conduct of the police and their sister (in)security agencies now.
The first possible reason is to politically legitimize the law breaking activities and total disregard of legal demands and blatant undermining of authority of the police by the MK Movement.
Robert Kyagulanyi the president of National Unity Platform recently addressing crowds in Kabale.
Without debate, the MK movement is an illegal outfit that ordinary government would have already declared an illegal society under normal circumstances. They were, however, left to maraud all over in total disrespect of both privision the law and institions that keep the same law and order.
The dilemma to those who still have a face is that since ( factually unable) you left the illegal MK to maraud unabated, how would you look crippling and stopping the legally permitted activities of political parties. I was reliably told this view was shared and led by Gen. Kahinda Otafire albeit momentarily.
The second possible reason which has some relationships with reason one is the desperate need to compare the “genetically modified crowds” of Muhoozi movement against the organic crowds of the change seeking forces. To show how desperate they were to make this a reality, look at the shabby style the drone generated photoshoped pictures being shared by publicly known activists belonging to that illegal society called MK movement. As they do this, the media is not only forcing their much desired MK vs. Bobi Wine narrative but also stamp their feet as the possible political factor in the country.
Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba’s recent crowds in Soroti’s visit.
The third reason is the need to conduct preemptive strikes on the political radical. Museveni and his son will not want to be stampeded with political problems at the elections period like it was in the previous elections. The formation of people power, the DP bloc activities, etc, and the delay to act, led them into the September 18 and 19th political violence.
As a smart operator, Museveni thinks the only way to avoid this is to identify early enough difficult areas, radical activists, and potentially problematic peer leaders for early and effective preemptive strikes and surgical operations.
The fourth reason is the dilemma created by the anti-election movement. After the contested 2016 Presidential results, the crusade against elections started.
Prominent personalities like Kizza Besigye and Charles Rwomushana, among others on different fronts, have been crusading against participating in future fraudulent elections. This movement is increasingly ganing reception, and Museveni knows about it.
One of the strong points of these crusaders is the mistreatment of the opposition by police. Therefore, whipping the people back into it entails removing roadblocks to the wrong actions of (in)security forces.
In that sense, one can say the difference in behavior of the police forces isn’t a willing change of mind but a painful engagement to achieve a strategic objective.
Little did he know that he was only ridding on the back of a leopard. Helped by Museveni’s own misgovernment punctuatied by his divide and rule, every region/tribe/ religion gives priority to its own first.
Intentionally or unintentionally, Buganda has done the same to Hon. Kyagulanyi (which is not a crime).
From this angle, security pundits who give orders to brutalize Ugandans thought beating, arresting, or mistreating Kyagulanyi in Mbarara or greater Western Uganda would automatically motivate negative talk, and sometimes reaction of actions against the people of western Uganda leaving in Buganda as a playback.
I am told that this issue came up and was specifically one of those the reasons that informed the current order to the police.
But this, therefore, means that most likely after Western Uganda, opposition will not survive beatings as accustomed to.
The last but not least possible reason could be that there were negotiations and conditions given from and to both sides.
These negotiations may not necessarily have to be between Mr. Museveni and Hon. Kyagulanyi or National Unity Platform – NUP. In fact, it might even be without their knowledge, engagement, or effort. This is because the running of a country is only a convergence of different forces and interests. Sometimes, a president, especially of Museveni, can have very surprising people running it both at national and international levels.
Overall, this temporary situation is deceptive fraudulent and not in good faith.
The writer is the SECRETARY GENERAL of National Economic Empowerment Dialogue-NEED
